Expected Own Goals
Best friends Evan Davis (Equalizer) and Eric Morgan (Deadspin) love each other. But they love women’s soccer more. Join them as they break down the tactical and analytical sides of the women’s game, from the NWSL and FA WSL to the Champions League and the U.S. Women’s National Team, and so much more. Now the official WoSo partner of American Soccer Analysis! Subscribe to our free newsletter: xog.beehiiv.com Subscribe to our Patreon for exclusive content: patreon.com/xowngoals
Episodes

Thursday Jul 18, 2024
Thursday Jul 18, 2024
Yes, the USWNT couldn't score against Costa Rica in their final pre-Olympics friendly. No, none of their boundless chances were especially high-quality.
But so what? The heat, the field, and the desire to keep everyone healthy explain the result a lot more than alleged poor play can. Eric and Evan tease out why this result doesn't augur doom for the U.S. in France this summer.
This is our final public bonus episode before we move them to Patreon on July 25th! E-mail xpectedowngoals@gmail.com to join our mailing list and get all of our updates throughout the tournament!

Monday Jul 15, 2024
Monday Jul 15, 2024
The USWNT offered a lot in their 1-0 victory over Mexico on a hot and muggy day in New Jersey. Was their lack of finishing something to be concerned over? Can Rose Lavelle be counted on in the absence of an injured Catarina Macario? Will Korbin Albert ever do what it takes to stop being booed?Plus, we have a big announcement about something we can't wait to debut when the Olympics starts! Stay tuned for more info! Art by Eli ElbogenMusic by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs

Thursday Jul 11, 2024
Thursday Jul 11, 2024
It's our last NWSL-centric episode for a month, friends! We decided to chat about some of our favorite players who slipped under the radar, and whose names we haven't discussed nearly enough. (13:56) Before that, Evan and Eric unpack all the latest transfer news, including Julia Grosso to the Chicago Red Stars, Mackenzie Arnold to the Portland Thorns, Rosemonde Kouassi to the Washington Spirit, and Mina Tanaka to the Utah Royals. (00:26)Art by Eli ElbogenMusic by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs

Tuesday Jul 09, 2024
Tuesday Jul 09, 2024
The two best teams in the NWSL had to wait until the final matchweek before the Olympics break to square off, and dear lord was it worth the wait. Brain-busting goals from Barbra Banda and Temwa Chawinga, a game-changing second yellow card for Carrie Lawrence, and a feisty, physical encounter all made this fixture an instant classic. Eric and Evan analyze what Seb Hines and Orlando did right, and maybe what Vlatko Andonovski and Kansas City did wrong.
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs

Friday Jul 05, 2024
Friday Jul 05, 2024
We didn't think a U.S. holiday weekend would toss so much news at us. First up, Eric and Evan chat about the announced Olympics rosters for Brazil, Spain, Canada, Japan, Germany, and Nigeria. (01:00)
Then it's on to the developing news that USC Journalism School dean Willow Bay and husband, Disney CEO Bob Iger, will be buying a majority stake in Angel City FC. What does this mean for the team, and for the league as a whole? (10:26)Finally, Eric and Evan unpack the horrendous allegations from multiple San Diego Wave employees that team president Jill Ellis had fostered a toxic and abusive work environment. (24:18)
Brittany Alvarado's StatementJenny Chuang's StatementBernadette O'Donnell's StatementAbigail Lozano's StatementSan Diego Wave StatementJill Ellis Statement
Art by Eli ElbogenMusic by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs

Tuesday Jul 02, 2024
Tuesday Jul 02, 2024
Eric and Evan debate another notable NWSL head coach sacking, hand out some Midseason Awards and go deep on Chicago's 3-0 "rout" of San Diego... was it a rout? What even is a rout?
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs

Thursday Jun 27, 2024
Thursday Jun 27, 2024
Quiet week, how's everyone doing?LOL JK First up, on the heels of Casey Stoney's firing, Eric and Evan puzzle over the unexpected resignation of Bay FC GM Lucy Rushton. (00:33)
Then, the moment has arrived! Emma Hayes announced her first USWNT major tournament roster, and it's a doozy. No Alex Morgan! Lots of Korbin Albert! Croix Bethune and Hal Hershfelt as alternates! What does this lineup tell us about Hayes's vision for the side? (11:10) And what do her and Trinity Rodman's comments about Albert tell us about the culture inside the locker room right now? (25:10) Evan and Eric drop some heaviness on today's episode.
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs

Tuesday Jun 25, 2024
Tuesday Jun 25, 2024
We're now (just over) halfway through the 2024 NWSL regular season, and trends are emerging! Eric and Evan uncover a host of interesting nuggets about how teams are playing this year compared to past seasons.
Why on earth did the San Diego Wave "part ways" with Casey Stoney? (00:16)Where did parity go? Is it simply a byproduct of expansion? (08:37)Does the increase in goalscoring come down to Barbra Banda, Temwa Chawinga, et al.? (18:00)The league still loves transition tactics, but how have they morphed in 2024? (20:36)How do the Chicago Red Stars, Racing Louisville, and Orlando Pride buck current tactical trends? (25:17)Are the Pride or the Kansas City Current the tactical future of the NWSL? (29:16)How has money influenced both tactics and the development of players to fit those tactics? (35:21)Whose first-half results have been real or not real? (42:55)Art by Eli ElbogenMusic by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs

Thursday Jun 20, 2024
Thursday Jun 20, 2024
It's time to pause and reflect on how much history the NWSL really possesses--something no professional club league in America has been able to accomplish. Using Evan's g+raft Score method, we tapped into ASA's g+ above replacement database to determine the best players in the league's history.
We induct several players from the Dead Stats Era (2013 - 2015), before advanced stats were available, including a legendary and complicated goalkeeper (11:55), a pioneering defender on and off the field (15:35), two midfielders who shaped their teams on different ends of the pitch (18:48), and two forwards who represented the league in very different ways (24:22).Then, we turn our attention to the Modern Era (2016 - 2024), where three national team defenders dominated their opponents (35:30), two midfield artists who could do anything with the ball (50:46), and three forwards that are absolute gimmes (68:05).
Read Evan's article on g+raft Score to peruse his points system. Art by Eli ElbogenMusic by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs

Tuesday Jun 18, 2024
Tuesday Jun 18, 2024
Gotham FC's 2-0 victory on the road against Racing Louisville was about as ugly as 2-0 victories get, but dig under the hood and you see that the preseason Shield favorites are finally coming into their own. The galacticos of Dunn, Lavelle, Davidson and Sonnett started their second game in a row together. Ella Stevens can't stop scoring. Ann-Katrin Berger might be the best keeper in the whole league right now. Is it all finally coming together for Juan Carlos Amorós's squad? Eric and Evan debate the finer points of Gotham's resurgence.Art by Eli ElbogenMusic by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs